", "How Josh Shapiro is trying to turn out Black voters in Philly, a crucial group for Democrats", "Pa. GOP players form pro-Shapiro PAC to buck 'unacceptable' Mastriano", "Governors races take on new prominence, with higher stakes", "Unlikely duo: John Fetterman, Josh Shapiro aim for united front", "Democrat Josh Shapiro picks up Republican endorsements in race for governor", "Shapiro endorses western Pa. representative for lieutenant governor", "Cheney says she'll campaign against Lake and Mastriano because of their election denials", "Leading GOP candidates in Pennsylvania were in Washington on Jan. 6", "Austin Davis announces bid for lieutenant governor, backed by Josh Shapiro", "Dems to launch statewide tour, arguing GOP is 'too extreme' for Pa. voters", "With Roe v. Wade gone, both sides see Pa. as a battlefield for the future of abortion rights", "Kinzinger endorses Dems in major governor, secretary of state races", "Shapiro uses Swarthmore visit to outline how he sees gubernatorial race", "Josh Shapiro, Austin Davis announce $1.4 million campaign to reach Black voters in Pa", "Gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro stops in Erie part of bus tour", "We've seen firsthand that to defend reproductive rights and protect our freedoms, we need a Democratic governor", "Josh Shapiro, John Fetterman Hold 'Rally In The Valley' Event At Old Main", "Shapiro joins Fiedler, Saval for launch of South Philly Voter Project", "Once Alarmed, Mainstream Pennsylvania Republicans Unite Around Mastriano", "Shapiro hosts community conversation in West Philly on criminal justice reform, how to keep communities safe", "President Biden emphasizes union support at United Steelworkers Labor Day event in West Mifflin", "Shapiro rallies in Beaver County a week before election", "Bucks County Republicans Fundraise For Shapiro, Blast Mastriano", "Mastriano mocks Shapiro as 'little Josh.' The Toss-up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. [160][161][162], Attorney General Josh Shapiro ran a progressive campaign emphasized on protecting abortion rights, voter rights, and raising the state's minimum wage to $15 an hour. Pennsylvania Governor Election Results 2022. May 23, 2022 Likely Democratic Democrats nominated state Rep. Summer Lee, who has promised to join "The Squad" in Congress, to replace retiring Pittsburgh Rep. Mike Doyle. The result was similar to the polls. Really??!! For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by at least six of them are shown in the darkest shade. We also correctly predicted Mastriano's win in the primary back in April. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own gubernatorial forecast. We rated every race in play in 2022. Shapiro also made history by earning the most votes of any gubernatorial candidate in the state's history, garnering just over three million votes. The 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Pennsylvania and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. Its going to be a Republican wave in November. Abortion on the. Josh Shapiro has crushed Doug Mastriano in the money race; will votes follow? He was up against the GOP candidate, Scott Wagner. He also carried Lancaster, including the counties contained (either fully or partially) within his State Senate district, namely Adams, Franklin and York. RacetotheWH features a Georgia Forecast tracking Stacey Abrams second try for the Governorship, a Florida forecast following Ron DeSantis's bid for re-election in 2022, the open Arizona Race, and Gretchen Whitmer's run for re-election in Michigan. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. I'm humbled and honored to have you standing with me", "As Pennsylvania Attorney General, @JoshShapiroPA has taken on the big fights. October 28:Connecticut moves from Likely to Safe Democratic; Michigan Likely to Leans Democratic; New York Safe to Likely Democratic. Pennsylvania has big fights ahead, and we need a leader who knows how to win for the people. The election was held on November 2, 2010. MarketWatch: Stock Market News - Financial News - MarketWatch Pennsylvania Governor Election 2022 | WTAJ - www.wtaj.com Democrat Josh Shapiro will become Pennsylvanias next governor after defeating an ultra-conservative loyalist of former President Donald Trump in a race largely defined by the future of abortion rights in the state, NBC News projects. Check the polls in 2010 and 2016. From the Democratic field was Tom Wolf seeking his re-election to a second term for Pennsylvania Governor. Josh Shapiro, Democrats Breakout Star, Is Running As A Pro-Police Crime Fighter, GOP groups stay quiet after Mastriano adviser questions if Josh Shapiro is Jewish, Shapiro holds tailgate with Franco Harris in State College, We probably love Israel more than a lot of Jews do, says GOP candidates wife, Trail Blazers vs Magic Prediction and Odds, Will Gala Reach $5, $50? Andrea Jones-Rooy, Dhrumil Mehta, Mary Radcliffe, Nathaniel Rakich, Derek Shan and Julia Wolfe contributed research. ", "Salena Zito: A 'once in a lifetime' candidate", "Silicon Valley billionaires square off over support for Trump and the MAGA movement", "Republican Panic Grows After Mastriano Wins", "Josh Shapiro raises money warning of Donald Trump's ads (which don't even mention Doug Mastriano)", "Gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro talks importance of Gen Z civic engagement at Clark Park rally", "Shapiro, Mastriano campaign in Washington County, rally supporters in PA governor race", "PA Gov. You sound like a robot! His ads have been lackluster in pointing out what a whack job Mastriano really is. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. Election 2022 - Pennsylvania Governor - RealClearPolitics The veto pen of outgoing, term-limited Democratic Gov. Fetterman leads Oz, 47.7% to 45.9% the closest that the celebrity doctor has been in a poll since an Emerson College poll (Aug 22-23) found him trailing by four points. Shapiros victory over state senator Doug Mastriano is a pivotal win for Democrats in Pennsylvania. If all normal PA voters are in their right minds, Mastriano will win BIG!!! Now we have Biden begging oil from our enemies after he does everything he can to destroy the oil industry in America. As of 1 p.m. on July 5, Shapiro is favored to win Pennsylvania's election for Governor, defeating State Senator Doug Mastriano in 74% of models. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census, 2,000, including at least 100 signatures from each of at least 10 counties, 2% of the largest entire vote cast for any elected statewide candidate in the last election, The Pennsylvania State Troopers Association . GOP candidates know it", "Trump May Still Be On the PA-Gov Sidelines No9w, But His Former Team Is Getting Off the Bench", "Corman endorses Barletta for governor in Pennsylvania, as Republicans step up their effort to halt Mastriano", "Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Lou Barletta Picks Up Key Endorsements", "Barletta: I can win and Mastriano can't", "Trump Alienates Pennsylvania GOP by Backing Mastriano for Governor", "Doug Mastriano's campaign for governor gets late boost from Donald Trump", "Pa. GOP insiders are plotting an 11th-hour plan to stop Doug Mastriano in the governor's race", "Rep. Boback endorses Barletta in governor's race", "NEW: Rep. Dan Meuser endorses @RepLouBarletta for governor of Pennsylvania", "Lou Barletta endorsed by Oil & Gas Workers Association", "Pa. primary election 2022: Your guide to the Democratic and GOP candidates for governor", "Charlie Gerow Answers the Call, Enters Race for PA Governor", "Conservative firebrand Doug Mastriano enters Pennsylvania's governor's race", "KEEPING UP WITH TRUMP'S CRONIES: TRUMP WADES INTO PA-SEN RACE AS HIS INNER CIRCLE DESCENDS ON PA-GOV "TRUMP PRIMARY", "STEVE BANNON TO JOIN DOUG MASTRIANO FOR "VOTER INTEGRITY CONFERENCE" IN GETTYSBURG", "Republicans warn Trump-backed Mastriano over false election claims and eye impact on Senate race", "GOP candidate for governor McSwain campaigns in Cambria County", "Ditka makes endorsement for PA governor", "Pennsylvania GOP stays out of primary fray", "Philadelphia Inquirer declines to endorse in Pennsylvania GOP primaries", "State Rep. Carrie DelRosso announces run for lieutenant governor", "Carrie Lewis DelRosso wins Republican Pennsylvania Lt. [180] Mastriano also drew accusations of antisemitism and for using anti-semitic dogwhistles against Shapiro (who is Jewish). For example, if he polls 90% among Republicans (he is at 74% now), the election could end in a Tie, Post SCOTUS Decision, Gain for Shapiro (D): +3.3%, Post SCOTUS Decision, loss for Mastriano (R): (-5.0%). In the latest poll released by The Trafalgar Group, the Republican candidates for U.S. Senate and governor have closed their deficits considerably as the last days of summer fade away. Contents The candidates Governor primary; AP projects", "Jerry Carnicella announces he's running for lieutenant governor", "Will Anyone Receive Endorsements at This Weekend's GOP Meeting? (function() { Pennsylvania Midterm Election Betting Odds - Election Forecast for 2022 Pennsylvania : Governor : 2022 Polls | FiveThirtyEight Meanwhile, Pittsburgh and its metro area have been a bright spot for Democrats while they lose votes in white working-class areas in North-East Pennsylvania (NEPA) like Bidens hometown of Scranton. Who's ahead in each governors race Leading candidate's forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in each state. Shapiro's large margin of victory has been widely credited with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections. a ban on abortions beyond six weeks of pregnancy, Majority of 16k Canceled Pennsylvania Mail-In Ballots Were From Democrats, On a New Map, Pennsylvania Elects Most Diverse Assembly Ever, July prompted nine fellow Pennsylvania Republicans to break from their party and back Shapiro, New Jersey Bill Seeks to Ban Sale of Baby Wipes, Check Your Change! _enxt.push(['wp_setup_profiles', []]); Shapiro, the state attorney . Georgia is an area that Republicans deem to be on the defensive. The New York Times reported in mid-June that Mastriano had been aided in the primary by the Pennsylvania Democratic Party and Shapiro's campaign with an ad equating him to Trump. See the rest of our predictions. it was competitive, not counting the fraud..you think Newsome actually won his recallwow. Doug Mastriano, the Republican candidate for Pennsylvania governor, was reportedly registered to vote in New Jersey until last year, opening himself up to the same carpetbagger accusations that have dogged Dr. Mehmet Oz. Trafalgar is paid by conservatives to describe closer contests when donors abandon a faltering Republican campaign. By contrast, one of Shapiros hallmarks as Pennsylvania Attorney General was his offices attempts to crack down on ghost guns, which are generally homemade firearms that are often sold in kits and have no serial number, making them difficult to trace. A Biden +20 seat should. An updating average, accounting for each poll's quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean. Things have changed in this race since when I first rated it. And Trump did win in 2020! Send us an email. May 23, 2022 Lean Democratic Some Republicans describe GOP nominee Doug Mastriano as borderline unelectable. 2022 United States gubernatorial elections 2021 November 8, 2022 2023 39 governorships 36 states; 3 territories Majority party Minority party Party Republican Democratic Seats before 28 22 Seats after 26 24 Seat change 2 2 Popular vote 43,126,140 43,336,108 Percentage 49.05% 49.29% Seats up 20 16 Seats won 18 18 Democratic hold Democratic gain Republican hold Republican gain . Governor races recap: Kemp, Whitmer, Abbott, DeSantis reelected PA Candidates for US Senate, Governor Make Final Pitch for 2022 Midterm You deserve to hear our thinking. Thanks to Ryan Boyer and @LiUNA for bringing so many of us together last night. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Except for Adams and Franklin counties, Lancaster and York were once again carried by single digits by the Republican gubernatorial candidate just like 2018, as Mastriano's extremist views likely turned off moderate Republicans in these areas. (Note: This data may be slightly different than results from NBC News' Decision Desk used elsewhere on this site)Amy O'Kruk/NBC. These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. 2022 US Gubernatorial Elections - Early Odds and Predictions In 2020, RacetotheWH was one of the most accurate forecasts in the nation and correctly called President Biden's victory in Pennsylvania. All Democrats happy talk before and Democrats tears is the aftermath. Shapiro's revenge: a massive bank account", "Boyd backs Shapiro, calls Mastriano an 'extremist', "Fulop holding fundraiser for Shapiro in Pennsylvania governor's race", "Josh Shapiro pitches economic plan during visit to Pittsburgh's robotics row", "Helen Gym Is Ready for Battle Over Roe, the Sixers and More", "Transcript: Leadership During Crisis with Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney", "SClout has three questions every Election Day. 2022 Pennsylvania Governor Election and Debate Today's Forecast Shapiro formally nominates cabinet Pennsylvania Politics / 1 month ago (WHTM) Pennsylvania Governor-elect Josh. [80] Mastriano won the primary anyway with almost 44% of the vote, defeating his nearest competitor, Barletta, by over 23 points. The election result was almost one-sided. Gas prices were lower and we were actually exporting gas and oil. [184] These factors, combined with Mastriano's refusal to talk to major media outlets and decision to ban journalists from campaign rallies, severely limited his voter outreach.[185]. [78][79] On May 12, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that former U.S. Representative Melissa Hart would also drop out and endorse Barletta. Rep. Austin Davis to enter Pa. Lt. Gov race with Dem Josh Shapiro's backing", "Who is State Rep. Austin Davis? A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined. Published: Apr. Who's ahead in the Pennsylvania governor race? A consensus outlook for the 2022 elections for governor based on the current ratings of these seven forecasters. The underdog GOP candidate grew up in the Garden State and voted in Jersey for 28 years until 2010, the New Jersey Globe reported. The state's governors wield a vast amount of power. The 4 suburban collar counties around the city are also huge vote banks for Dems as they trend away from Trumps GOP. Almost all the polls gave Tom Wolf over 10% lead over Scott Wagner. Shapiros victory over state senator Doug Mastriano is a pivotal win for Democrats in Pennsylvania. Polls have ALWAYS missed the significant vote of the rural areas of our republic. He was up against the incumbent Republican Governor Tom Corbett. Governor", "Pittsburgh attorney Steve Irwin joins race to replace Doyle", "Mark Pinsley announces bid to set up rematch against Sen. Pat Browne", "I'm grateful for the support of my friends and colleagues across Pennsylvania who came forward on Day One to support our team.